Friday, January 3, 2014

The Mystery That Is Keiji Jouon




Middle reliever Keiji Jouon was signed as a 27 year-old international free agent in 2014 for the 2015 season.   He signed a $12.6M contract that was worth 2.5M per season and holds two team options over the next two season.

Based on a lot of conflicting information, Minnesota will have a tough decision on those team options in the upcoming season.

When Jouon signed, Minnesota thought he might be able to make it as a two pitch starter.  That lasted four games and he was moved to the pen.  He finished the season with a 4.78 ERA and a 4.14 FIP.  Not terrible for the hitter happy RCL, especially considering a relatively unlucky .384 BABIP.

Since he signed, his results have not improved, posting a 5.58 ERA in 90 innings .  However, his FIP has decreased to 3.99 and this season is at 3.14.

He's struck out 37 batters in 35 innings while walking 10 and giving up just three HR.  These are good marks for a reliever, and dovetail with the improved stuff that Minnesota's scouts have seen in Jouon.

Still, though, his ERA remains at a staggering 5.80 and his BABIP is an awful .402, over 80 points higher than Minnesota's defensive BABIP.   We might chalk this up to bad luck again, but there are some concerning signs.

There are just four pitchers in the ABL who have BABIPs over .400 in 30+ innings this season:  Ron Cutter (.415), Anibal Machado (.416), and Enrique Castillo (.423).  Up that minimum to just 35 innings, and Jouon stands completely alone.

Worse yet, if you look at his career, just one active pitcher of the ABL has more than 35 innings and a BABIP higher than Jouon's, Dean Smith (.442).   Jouon's career BABIP is .396 in 90 innings.

At some point, it ceases to be bad luck and it may just be who Jouon is.  There certainly is evidence pointing towards that conclusion.  Obviously, Minnesota hopes that it isn't the case, and he's not very expensive to keep around and see if it is just a long run of bad luck.

What they may not be able to afford is to continue to give him innings if he continues throwing something akin to batting practice.






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