The Roberto Clemente League playoff race stands in stark contrast to the Thurman Munson League with one month to go.
In the RCL, it's very likely that one, and maybe two, 90 win teams will miss the playoffs while the TML may send team that is hovering around, and maybe even below, .500.
The TML playoff spots, with one exception are almost clearly decided. Only one spot in the RCL is a runaway and five teams will be battling over the last three spots.
Those five teams (MIN, SOC, SEA, OKC, and MON) are about as closely matched as they could be and predicting their finishing order may be impossible, so we'll take a look at them in reverse order of their current records and leave you to decide who is the favorite. And, from here on out the group will be referred to as The Five.
5. The Oklahoma City Prowlers are crouching just off the pack at 76-61, three games back of the wild card.
The Prowlers are the least balanced team of the bunch, heavily focused on run scoring. They lead the RCL at 6.6 runs/game, 0.4 more than the next best team and 0.7 runs better than the next of The Five. They do it by slugging the heck out of the ball, a category where they lead the RCL.
Their weakness is pitching and defense, where they are a much more average team. Oklahoma City gives up 5.3 runs/game and are the only team of The Five that gives up more than 5.0 (SEA is at exactly five).
Still, this average pitching and high number of runs seems like it should be generating more wins than the Prowlers have, and their pythagorean record shows that to be true. In fact, they have the best pythagorean record of The Five. OKC is underperforming their pythag by 6 wins, which ties them for Cabo with the largest difference in the league. They're also 16-24 in one run games. .
While it would be tough to predict OKC to make up the differences in those two numbers (pythag and one run losses) in a month, it does beg the question of whether they've just hit some bad luck or there is a strategic/talent reason they are losing those close games.
They're a bit of a longshot due to their current position and difficult remaining schedule but there are compelling reasons not to count them out.
4. On the bubble of both the division and wildcard, The Minnesota Berserkers could end up a division winner but could just as easily end up with nothing.
Where OKC is the least balanced of The Five, Minnesota is probably more balanced than any of the others in terms of performance this season, getting relatively equal contributions from their bats and arms this season, in the middle of The Five.
Minnesota's offense has seen massive improvements thanks to the help of developing young players They are 4th in runs scored in the RCL, a number that has improved as the season has.
With an overall ERA of 4.42, the Berserkers are 2nd in the RCL. They have a nicely balanced rotation that lacks a true ace, but any of the starting rotation can keep the game close. The problem seems to be that errors are particularly costly for MN, with a difference of almost 0.4 between runs and earned runs p/game. That's tied for one of the worst of The Five (along with OKC), and is particularly egregious considering a relatively rangy defense (4th in the league in BABIP).
Coming off a three game winning streak where Minnesota hitters hung losses on three of the top pitchers in the entire ABL and their division rivals, the Berserkers may have some momentum. However, not having a true ace or any clear strength over the other teams means they need everything working for the last month to sneak into the race.
3. The Sasquatch are much less elusive than their namesake. Seattle is currently leading the wildcard while just a game out for the division.
Always known for their big bats, this season has been no different. Seattle's offense is ahead of even the Prowlers in HR, and also leads the RCL in walks. Seems like a good recipe for scoring runs, and with SEA it has been, placing them 3rd in the RCL in that category.
While Seattle is similar to the Prowlers in that their strength is at the plate and they struggle from the mound, it's less of a hole for Seattle. The Sasquatch rank 5th in runs allowed. Much of that is due to the second best defensive BABIP in the RCL and the best of The Five. Seattle's starters have been able to hold their own with the second best ERA in the RCL, but their pen ranks 10th. They have had a run of arms lost for the season, so that is certainly part of the problem.
Seattle's schedule might be the softest of The Five and have the most playoff experience. Their challenge will be to fight off the mounting injuries.
2. Stealing first in the division early in the season, the Montreal Bandits have yet to relinquish is in the Tony LaRussa, but it is down to just a game.
Unlike every other team of The Five, Montreal's strength isn't in it's bats. This isn't to say they're bad. The Bandits have the highest average and strike out the least of any team in the RCL, but that hasn't translated into runs as they are 6th in the RCL, the worst of The Five. Acquiring pitching does seem to have come at the expense of the bats, at least to some extent.
On the other hand, the Bandits were more active than any other team this season in the trade market and acquired two front line starters to go along with Sato, who developed into an ace this season. It's shown as well in the pitching rankings, as Montreal has been in a consistent climb to the top since the trades were made. So while they are 4th in overall ERA and in runs allowed, that doesn't truly account for how good they've been recently. That is also in spite of one of the worst defensive BABIPs in the entire RCL (.330).
After Montreal's trades, they were my easy favorite to win the division. However, their lead hangs by a thread now and their hitting might be at their lowest point in a long time.
1. The SoCal Republic's division run has mirrored Montreal and their lead is down to a single game. Not only is their division race similar to the Bandits' but their teams are nearly mirrors as well, with only minor differences.
SoCal's hitting is good enough and has been better than Montreal's, at least in terms of runs. Their heavy right-handed lineup is fourth in the RCL in runs scored. They grade out as above average -- but not much beyond -- in every category. They do run a bit better, having swiped 147 bases.
The Rebuplic's pitching gets it done for them, but not necessarily in the way they are used to. The starters in SoCal have been their pride and joy, but are 5th in ERA this season. The pen is dominating withe a 3.39 ERA and leads the RCL. Overall, the Republic is 2nd in run prevention and it's an impressive feat with the 9th highest BABIP in the RCL. The bottom line, though is the staff doesn't give up home runs (2nd), walks (3rd), and strikes out a ton of hitters (1094) and being strong in those categories can make up for a lot.
As long as SoCal's starters can hand over close games (and leads) to the bullpen and the bats continue to be above average, the Republic could continue to fight off and with Seattle. However, it's late in the season and if the arms start to strike out fewer hitters (forcing the defense to make more plays) or the hitting goes through a slump, they could just as easily be out of this one.
Of course, all of The Five are on similar thin ice between heading to the post season and missing out on it completely.
