Minnesota 2018 Wrap-Up

Despite Minnesota getting to the playoffs for the first time since the inaugural season, allowing them to shed the title of the team with the most wins with fewest playoff appearances, it was very tough for the organization and fan base to be as excited as they should have been.    

Luis "Patches" Rodriguez

OF Larry White and 2B Lorenzo Rodriguez were both injured in the last week of the season and would be out for the entire playoffs.   These two players accounted for 75 of the team’s 275 HR and 14.5 WAR.  There were easily the two most important players in the organization this season for a team that held a narrow wildcard lead as it was, so they went into the playoffs as underdogs anyway, but without White and Patches, a series win against So Cal would have been nothing short of a miracle.

That said, there were quite a few highlights this season and a lot of reasons to look forward to next season.

Peter Blanchard

• Peter Blanchard had arguably his best season since 2014, hitting 40 HR and driving in 133 RBIs.  “Arguably” because he he was limited to playing against RHP and appeared in the second fewest number of games (138), despite being healthy the entire season because he has become ineffective against LHP.   He also signed a very team friendly contract to stay in Minnesota and became the league’s career leader in HR, surpassing Tom Becker with 293.

Xavier Chavez-
Is there a reason these MN
players are aging quickly? 

• Xavier Chavez took over the full time catching role from Bodil Larson this season and hit .310 with a .361 OBP.   While a full-time, franchise catcher might a couple seasons away, Chavez could be someone Minnesota keeps on the roster longer than expected.

• OF Raymond Moor signed a minor league contract in April and was a valuable platoon/backup player, hitting .296/.371/.500 in just over 200 PAs.  A RHB, he actually had more success against RHP despite being signed for a platoon type role.

• The starting pitching was good enough to to be average in the RCL with a 5.43 ERA, which is good enough to be a winning team with a top offense, though the bullpen does need to see improvement.

Questions for the Offseason:

• Will the team pickup Eric McSwan’s option?  He’s 36 and in line for 15M next season.   However, he did destroy LHP (.936 OPS), which is what he was paid to do and necessary on a team with very few capable RHB.

• How will the team improve its defense?  The Berserkers needed to dig deep this year in the middle infield due to injuries, but the lack of a true CF may also have been a factor in MN being 11th in BABIP in the RCL.  Regardless, this needs to improve.

• 

  Harley FIsher

  Who will start in CF next year?  Harley Fisher earned the spot last season with a fantasticoffensive and defensive season in 2017 (5.1 WAR).  This season, he was a replacement level hitter and had a -9 ZR.  Not good enough, but there aren’t any ready replacements in the organization.

• Will MN make a big splash in FA or via trade?  With the need for a CF and a possible ace pitcher, there is reason to do so.  On the other hand, free agency has been pretty disappointing in the ABL and a lot of teams have similar strengths and weaknesses.

Somehow....Injuries and International Signings

The Berserkers have had a couple of surprises, some welcomed and some rude, over the last month.

In the unfortunate category is the decimation of their SS position.   After a relatively healthy first half of the season, Minnesota has been hit by injuries and left scrambling to find replacements for their SS position the entire month.  

Sam Harper, who won the job out of spring training, was not an elite shortstop, but he had posted a .742 OPS and a +4.5 ZR this season and totaled a 1.3 WAR before going down for four months in early July.

This left the position to Luis "Too" Rodriguez.  Rodriguez was in his sophomore season and had proven to be, overall, a very similar player to Harper, even if his hitting wasn't quite as good as last season.  While he struggled against RHP, he did have a .908 OPS against lefties and had a 4.2 ZR at SS in about half the innings that Harper had.   Rodriguez went down on July 20th for 6 weeks.

Veteran utility man, Artie Carlson, who had been called up after Harper's injury to come off the bench and was the next logical starter on the depth chart made it just one day in the starting lineup before going down for 3 weeks himself.   His bat will not be missed, but his fielding versatility might.

This left the team with two options, promote more promising infield prospects who clearly weren't ready in Walt Carter and Lou Townsend.  If this had been a more minor injury with the possibility of giving these guys a small taste, that might have been the best option.

As it was, the Berserkers need a longer term solution and didn't want to harm the development of any younger players.  That left them with with a young glove only Joshua Johnston and another veteran minor leaguer who will make his ABL debut: Tetsu Nishimura, whose nickname "Turtle" is apropos considering the speed with which he reached the majors.

It's rumored that Minnesota may go to the trade market, especially as they have the pleasant surprise of finding themselves tied for first, despite the group of injuries to these players and others.

Which brings us to one of the pleasant surprises.  The Berserkers went in for just a couple of international free agents, and while they ended up overspending and will be limited next season, they did so by spending just $7.1M.   They won't be financially limited in other respects next season.

The first player they picked up was one of the better all-around infielders in the IFA pool, Fernando Botelheiro, who has the potential for an elite eye, but was overall rated as just a 2.5 star potential player.  This was actually the only player the front office expected to get.

In addition, they picked up Yoshiki Yamamoto, a 17 year-old they hope develops into a high contact, power hitting CF.   At just 17 and lots of space to grow, he may end up changing positions, but Minnesota's scout had him ranked him as a 4 star potential.

Finally, the snagged the player their scout thought was the best pitcher in the draft, Alphonso Martinez.  Martinez already has a massive 5 pitch repertoire and was thought to be one of the hardest working players in the IFA pool.   His potential for elite control and good movement, mixed with decent stuff  --despite throwing under 90MPH -- mean this guy could be a front of the rotation pitcher.  As his arm strengthens, who knows how he might improve.   Minnesota felt like they got a deal in Martinez, spending just $5m for this promising young player.

Extension Rumors Swirling in Minnesota

It's early in the season, but Minnesota GM, Alex Wobbema, apparently wants to put one of the biggest questions of the offseason to rest: Where will Peter Blanchard be?
  

Minnesota inside baseball reporter, Warren Dolfson, reports that there is an offer on the table and that it is reportedly, "shockingly small."

Blanchard reportedly was asking for a 5-year deal for 60M before the season started.  That, in and of itself, seems like a low asking price from the slugger, especially since he is just 24 and his a career .335/.402/.610 hitter who has 258 HR over his 6+ years in the league.

However, there are some concerning signs that had the Berserkers shopping Blanchard last season on what was then an extremely friendly contract.   Blanchard's bat, despite his age, has been slowing down.   After his first three seasons, where he hit for an average of  .377, .381, and .355, his best season is .313.   K/BB rates have also dropped in that time.    These are not promising signs in a 24 year-old who is already mostly locked into a DH role.

This has some of the more critical and active blogosphere in Minnesota saying they should give him a qualifying offer and take the pick or simply let the young slugger go, save the money and open up a spot that is relatively easy to fill in the ABL, especially with MNs slugger heavy minor league system, where there are players, older than Blanchard, who the team can't find a spot for and would be on most team's rosters.  

But, it's tough to simply cast aside a consistent 35-40+ HR a season, and a player who is very popular, both with the fan base and nationwide.  Because of that, Dolfson is reporting that the Berserker's reached out to Blanchard again and that, when they did, his starting point had come down significantly. The rumor is that the final offer discussed is roughly $6M/year for three years and that Blanchard is seriously considering.

If true, it would be a no-brainer for Minnesota. If Blanchard has continues to decline and can't ever find his original swing, it's a low risk to take as he is still likely to put up very good numbers for a couple of years.  On the other hand, for Blanchard, if he regains his former swing, he'll still be just 27 and will be looking at a very big payday.

Minnesota's Opening Day Roster

The Bats

After a relatively successful season, very little has changed in Minnesota’s lineup from last season.

LINEUP VS RHP+DH # B Name Pos AVG HR RBI SB 1 L Bob Brown 1B .294 2 5 0 2 L Luis Rodríguez 2B .385 1 7 0 3 L Larry White RF .423 3 7 0 4 L Peter Blanchard DH .130 1 3 0 5 L Harley Fisher CF .192 0 4 2 6 L Kevin Tolbert LF .278 2 4 0 7 S Alan Hurt 3B .240 2 4 1 8 R Sam Harper SS .200 0 0 0 9 R Bodil Larsen C .222 0 0 0

LINEUP VS LHP+DH # B Name Pos AVG HR RBI SB 1 R Bodil Larsen C .222 0 0 0 2 L Bob Brown 1B .294 2 5 0 3 L Larry White RF .423 3 7 0 4 R Eric McSwan DH .000 0 1 0 5 L Harley Fisher CF .192 0 4 2 6 R Sam Harper SS .200 0 0 0 7 L Tony Parker LF .250 0 0 0 8 S Alan Hurt 3B .240 2 4 1 9 L Luis Rodríguez 2B .385 1 7 0

To the starting hitters, the biggest change was the addition of Eric McSwan, whose RHB will be a regular in the lineup vs. LHP.   Acquired from Mile High, McSwan was mainly a salary dump for the Mustangs and came along with RHP Scott Wilson for OF Floyd Cross.   The Minnesota front office hopes he’ll return closely to former numbers in their more hitter friendly park.

Beyond that, Larry White gets the opening day starting spot in RF.   He had over 300 ABs last season after getting the call-up whne Kevin Tolbert was injured and played regularly even after Tolbert’s return, so this is more of a cosmetic change than an actual change.  He replaces the spot that Tim Duncan and, after the trade, Tom Klein, held.   

The Arms:

PITCHING STAFF

Role	T	Pitcher	G	GS	W	L	SV	ERA	WHIP	Status
Starter	R	Evan Warner	1	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.50	Out
Starter	L	Franklin Cox	1	1	1	0	0	6.14	1.50	Rested
Starter	R	James Phillips	1	1	1	0	0	3.86	1.14	Rested
Starter	R	Chris Wine	1	1	0	0	0	7.20	1.40	Slightly Tired
Starter	R	Joe Myers	1	1	0	0	0	3.68	1.36	Tired
Middle Reliever	R	Steve Johnson	3	0	0	1	1	3.38	1.13	Rested
Middle Reliever	R	Keiji Jouon	1	1	1	0	0	0.00	0.72	Totally Exhausted
Middle Reliever	R	J.J. Harrison	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	1.50	Rested
Specialist	L	Ken Hubert	2	0	0	0	0	4.91	0.82	Rested
Closer	R	Roy Cole	4	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.88	Rested
Closer	R	Dennis Stanford	3	0	1	1	0	5.40	1.20	Rested

The pitching staff, from starter to bullpen is mostly the same as well, though Jim Brady has departed and Jim Phillips will have his spot from the start this season and Chris Wine starts the season in the rotation after his “incident” last season.   Look for RHP Scott Wilson to be the first replacement for an injured or stumbling pitcher.

Players to watch:

Peter Blanchard is in the last year of his contract.   He’s asking for a lot but is still young and an excellent hitter despite his declining ratings.   It will largely be up to his performance and continued trend this season, along with what he’s asking for for next year.

Roy Cole is also closing out a contract and has looked incredibly solid in spring training.  It’s tough to know if Minnesota will keep the aging closer, especially with two young hurlers in the minors.